Sunday, August 18th,2024
Author: Mabel Nokhuthula Piki
Country: Chinhoyi, Zimbabwe
source: Zambezi River Authority - https://www.zambezira.org/hydrology/lake-levels
Summary
The global fight against climate change has hit a major roadblock, as several countries grapple with tough energy decisions in the face of growing environmental concerns. Two nations at the heart of this difficulty are Zimbabwe and Zambia, who are finding themselves caught between the dire need for reliable power and the looming threat of carbon emissions. Now, the very forces of climate change are undermining the clean energy solutions countries have relied upon. Devastating droughts have crippled hydropower generation, (I.Abbas, 2022) (A.Catalin, 2023), forcing some nations to reluctantly turn back to the dirtiest of fuels - coal - to keep the lights on.
Background
In 2022, coal combustion produced a staggering 15.22 billion metric tons of carbon dioxide worldwide, contributing significantly to the 1.6% increase in global carbon dioxide levels that surpassed pre-pandemic levels, (IEA, 2024). Fossil fuels, including coal, account for 81% of the world's energy mix, with coal being the third largest contributor at 45% of global greenhouse gas emissions and bringing the case closer home of the ten largest sulfur dioxide (indirect GHG) air polluter point sources identified in Africa, nine are thermal power stations, of which one is the Hwange Power station In Zimbabwe and this is according to the March 2024 report, (GEM Wiki, 2024)
While nations have pledged to shift to renewable energy sources to combat climate change, numerous obstacles are impeding progress. One of the primary challenges is the impact of climate change-induced droughts, which have severely affected hydropower generation, (I. Abbas, 2022) –a clean energy source that both Zimbabwe and Zambia have heavily relied upon. 61% of current and projected hydropower dams globally are projected to be in river basins with high to extreme risk of water scarcity, floods, or both by 2050,(I. Abbas, 2022), and this is proving to be true for the Zambezi River basin.
Zimbabwe’s Energy Situation
In Zimbabwe, hydropower accounts for around 70% of the country's electricity generation, followed by coal at 29%, (R.Mutasa, 2021). The country has pledged to reduce its greenhouse gas emissions by 40% by 2050 (L. Towindo, 2023), However, it is also working on expanding its coal-fired power capacity (GEM Wiki, 2024). For instance, the Hwange coal power station is undergoing a project to restore its generation to 96% of its 920MW capacity by 2028. Additionally, RioZim mining company is seeking to develop a massive 2,800MW coal-fired power station in Sengwa, (L.Towindo, 2023) and this is because of the over-reliance on hydropower energy, which is currently being threatened by climate change induced-droughts, hence a need to turn to sustainable renewables like solar and wind.
Zambia’s Energy Situation
Zambia's energy landscape is even more heavily reliant on hydropower, which accounts for a staggering 80% of its total energy mix, (M.Brown, 2023). However, with only around 10% of the population having access to clean cooking fuels and technologies, the country's energy sector remains heavily dominated by a non-diversified, hydropower-dependent system. Despite Zambia's greenhouse gas emissions increase from 5.1MtCO2eq in 1990 to 15.1MtCO2eq in 2022, (IEA, 2024), the country is also looking to expand its coal power capacity according to the Minister of Energy Press Statement, (Zambezi River Authority, 2024) as one of its ways to deal with energy shortage among other resolutions.
The primary driver behind these decisions is the impact of climate change-induced droughts, which have severely depleted the water levels in Lake Kariba, (Zambezi River Authority, 2024), (L.Towindo, 2023) – a critical hydropower source shared by Zimbabwe and Zambia. In 2023/2024, both countries and Malawi declared a state of natural disaster due to the prolonged drought, with Lake Kariba's July water levels dropping to just 10.63% of its usable storage, compared to 29.56% in the same period last year, (ZRA, 2024). Though there is no data made public on the overall decrease in the water levels of the entire Lake Kariba, observations show significant changes for example homes in the fishing villages that were once right next to the lake are now located 1 to 2km from the lake, (J.Matanzima, 2024).
Due to power deficits and rolling blackouts, both Zimbabwe and Zambia have had to resort to funding and extending coal-fired power plants as one of their solutions. However, this decision comes with a significant cost, as it worsens the climate change issues they are working to solve.
Alternatives Case studies
An analysis in US states by the Energy Innovation Policy and Technology on the cost of new renewable energy and battery resources compared to coal generation found that 99% of coal plants are more expensive to run than the all-in-all cost of new wind and solar resources in the same region, and97% of plants are more expensive than wind or solar within a mile radius, (M. Solomon, 2023), so for those who think coal is the cheaper option to combat the energy crisis need to think twice, and the lack of commitment towards solar and wind energy development by the decision-makers at the expense of livelihoods affected due coal energy induced climate change impacts need to be addressed. In 2022 EU, renewable wind and solar generated a record fifth 22% of electricity overtaking gas for the first time, (Sky News, 2023), meaning it’s a viable sustainable alternative to be adopted.
The call
Experts warn that the timing and amount of rainfall in Zimbabwe are becoming increasingly uncertain, with climate models predicting a drying trend that will increase in intensity with time and warming rates of 0.5 to 20 degrees Celsius by 2030, (Zimbabwe Human Development Report 2017, 2017) which is warmer than the 1961 -1990 baseline. In the 2023 /2024 season, large parts of Southern Africa had little rainfall and the trend is predicted to persist due to droughts, (J.Matanzima, 2024). This underscores the urgent need for these countries to diversify their energy portfolios and invest heavily in renewable sources, such as solar taking advantage of the prolonged warm temperatures and wind, to build resilience against the ongoing climate crisis. There is a need for willingness to acknowledge the destructive effects of unsustainable energy sources and speed up implementation of the clean energy policies, (Nyavaya, 2021).
References
1. A.Catalin. (2023, February 8). The Challenge of Hydropower in Europe. Retrieved from LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/challenge-hydropower-europe-catalin-anton/
2. BBC News. (2022, December 8). Cumbria coal mine: Will it threaten the UK's climate targets? Retrieved from BBC News: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/explainers56023895#:~: text=the%20government%20has%20approved%20the, the%20UK's%20climate%20chAnge%20targets.
3. GEM Wiki. (2024, July 17). Hwange Power Station. Retrieved from Global Energy Monitor Wiki: https://www.gem.wiki/Hwange_power_station#:~:text=According%20to%20reporting%20from%20April%202024%2C%20SDNEC%20had%20announced%20plans,MW%20to%20the%20power%20station.
4. I. Abbas. (2022, March 11). Hydropower Projects in Europe Threatened by Increasing Floods and Droughts Due to Climate Change, Warns New Study. Retrieved from WWF Water Risk Filter: https://www.wwf.eu/?6176891/Hydropower-projects-in-Europe-threatened-by-increasing-floodsand-droughts-due-to-climate-change-warns-new-study
5. IEA. (2024, August 02). Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Energy Data Explorer. Retrieved from International Energy Agency: https://www.iea.org/data-and-statistics/data-tools/greenhouse-gasemissions-from-energy-data-explorer
6. J.Matanzima. (2024, May 9). Lives and livelihoods at stake as Lake Kariba water drops: What can be done? Retrieved from Global Water Forum: https://www.globalwaterforum.org/2024/05/09/lives-andlivelihoods-at-stake-as-lake-kariba-water-drops-what-can-be-done/
7. L.Towindo. (2023, June 22). Zimbabwe Looks Towards Cleaner Energy. Retrieved from Dialogue Earth: https://dialogue.earth/en/energy/zimbabwe-looks-towards-cleaner-energy/
8. LeMonde. (2022, September 02). Despite Climate Commitment, The EU is Going Back to Coal. Retrieved From LeMonde: https://www.lemonde.fr/en/economy/article/2022/09/02/despite-climatecommitments-the-eu-is-going-back-to-coal_5995594_19.html
9. M. Solomon, M. (2023, February 9). Renewables would provide cheaper energy than 99% of US coal Plants and catalyze a just energy transition. Retrieved from Utility Dive: https://www.utilitydive.com/news/renewables-cheaper-energy-than-99-percent-of-us-coal-plantsjust-energytransition/642393/#:~:text=We%20found%2099%25%20of%20coal,resources%20in%20the%20same%20region.
10. M. Brown, J. (2023). Zambia Article 6: Readiness and Needs Assessment: A Technical Brief. Retrieved from GGGI: https://gggi.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/SPAR6C-Technical-Brief_-ZambiaArticle-6-Readiness-and-Needs-Assessment.pdf
11. Nyavaya, K. (2021, December 23). Sustained Appetite for Coal Hampers Zimbabwe's Renewable Energy Prospects. Retrieved from The Global Energiewende: https://energytransition.org/2021/12/sustainedappetite-for-coal-hampers-zimbabwes-renewable-energy-prospects/
12. R.Mutasa. (2021, January 19). Africa Energy Futures: Zimbabwe. Retrieved from DLA Piper: https://www.dlapiper.com/en/insights/publications/2021/11/africa-energy-futures/africa-energyfutures-zimbabwe
13. Sky News. (2023, January 31). Big Return to Coal In Europe Killed Off by Record Renewable Energy. Retrieved from Sky News: https://news.sky.com/story/renewable-power-record-prevents-big-returnto-coal-in-europe-despite-energycrisis12799701#:~:text=As%20Russia%20cut%20off%20gas,the%20most%20polluting%20fossil%20fuel.
14. Tiselo, I. (2024, July 12). Carbon Emissions from Coal Combustion Worldwide from 1960 to 2022.Retrieved from STATISTA: https://www.statista.com/statistics/784682/worldwide-co2-emissionsfromcoal/#:~:text=Coal%20combustion%20produced%2015.22%20billion,of%2015%20GtCO%E2%82%82%20in%202014.
15. Zambezi River Authority. (2024, July 25). Energy Minister Briefs Nation on Government Plans to Address Energy Crisis: Republic of Zambia Press Release 2024. Retrieved from Zambezi River Authority: https://www.facebook.com/photo?fbid=887189746781596&set=pcb.887190910114813
16. Zimbabwe Human Development Report 2017. (2017). The Zimbabwe Climate Change Context: The Zimbabwe Human Development Report 2017. Retrieved from UNDP Briefs: https://www.undp.org/sites/g/files/zskgke326/files/migration/zw/UNDP_ZW_2017ZHDR_Briefs--Zimbabwe-Climate-Change-Context.pdf
17. ZRA. (2024, July). Lake Kariba Weekly Levels in Meters. Retrieved from Zambezi River Authority: https://www.zambezira.org/hydrology/lake-levels
Access to full pdf link:https://0fa4fb88-a989-4621-9394-02d448eaab81.usrfiles.com/ugd/0fa4fb_e38025d1b2df4f4882a30c327c6e4248.pdf
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