Author: Mio Yoshikawa
Source: ISSAfrica.org, 2022
In Africa, human mobility has a long history and plays a crucial role in community resilience. However, the countries within the Lake Victoria Basin face a pressing issue of climate-induced migration. If concrete actions on climate change and sustainable development are not taken, between 16.6 and 38.5 million people in the Basin countries could be forced to move within their own borders due to water scarcity, declining crop productivity, ecosystem degradation, and the risks of rising sea levels and storm surges. As early as 2030, climate-related migration hotspots will emerge and continue to spread and intensify until 2050. By implementing effective climate and development measures, it is possible to reduce the scale of internal climate migration in the Basin countries by 30 percent. No country in the region will be unaffected, with Tanzania and Uganda projected to face the highest numbers of internal climate migrants by 2050, reaching 16.6 million and 12.0 million, respectively, under the pessimistic scenario. Kenya, Rwanda, and Burundi will also experience significant internal climate migration, emphasizing the need for urgent and collaborative actions to address this challenge.
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