Date: 19 September, 2024
Title: What is driving the shift in leadership from older presidents to younger leaders and military rule in West Africa?
Authors: George Lmangeyan
Country: Kenya
SUMMARY
Military coups have long been a feature of West African politics, particularly during the Cold War era. However, the rise of democracy in the 1990s seemed to herald a new chapter for the region. Despite this progress, recent years have seen a troubling resurgence of military coups and interventions in countries like Mali, Guinea, Burkina Faso, and Niger. These military takeovers are seen by many as a direct threat to democratic institutions, electoral processes, and governance in the region.
BACKGROUND
INTRODUCTION
West Africa, a region rich in cultural diversity and natural resources, has faced numerous challenges in its journey towards establishing stable democracies. In recent years, there has been a resurgence of military leadership in several West African nations, a development that has increasingly threatened democratic principles and governance.
The return of military regimes, which was thought to have been left in the past following decades of military coups during the post-colonial era, is now again destabilizing democracies across the region. This discussion will examine the ways in which military leadership is undermining democracy in West Africa, focusing on specific examples.
The role of regional organizations and Blocs such as the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) and African Union have also made remarkable contributions by responding to these coups with sanctions and diplomatic efforts to restore constitutional order. However, these interventions have not always been successful. It is also important to note that the public opinion on military interventions has a broader impact on democratic governance in the region.
International powers like France, the U.S., and Russia have also been involved in the region, each with differing strategies in addressing the military takeovers, counterterrorism efforts, and influence over the newly installed leaders.
The shift toward militarization and younger presidents in West Africa can be traced to a mix of social, economic, political, and historical factors. This trend has been especially noticeable in the last decade, as several countries in the region have experienced military coups, political transitions, and the emergence of younger leaders.
Rise in Military Coups
Since 2020, there has been a resurgence of military takeovers in West African nations like Mali, Guinea, Burkina Faso, and Niger.
The reasons for these coups often include:
Weak governance and corruption: Many governments in the region have been accused of corruption, poor governance, and failing to address key issues such as poverty, unemployment, and security.
Insecurity and terrorism: The rise of Islamist insurgencies, particularly in the Sahel region, has created a sense of instability. Some military leaders have justified their coups by citing the failure of civilian governments to effectively combat terrorism.
Disillusionment with democracy: After years of democratic rule, many citizens have become frustrated with political elites who seem disconnected from their needs, leading to a rise in support for military interventions as an alternative to ineffective governance.
Emergence of Young Leaders
Younger leaders have also started to play a more prominent role in West African politics. For instance, Bassirou Diomaye Faye of Senegal, Ibrahim Traoré of Burkina Faso and Assimi Goïta of Mali.
Ibrahim Traoré of Burkina Faso, who came to power in 2022 at the age of 34, is currently the world’s youngest head of state. His leadership represents a significant shift from the traditional, older political elite.
Mali's Assimi Goïta, a military officer who led coups in 2020 and 2021, has emerged as a young leader at the forefront of Mali’s governance, reflecting the military’s increasing role in politics. This trend can be attributed to several factors:
Changing demographics: Africa has one of the youngest populations in the world, and there is growing demand for leaders who can connect with and address the concerns of younger generations. Youth unemployment and dissatisfaction with the older generation of leaders have fueled support for younger figures.
Social media and activism: Younger leaders often have a strong presence on social media, which they use to galvanize support, particularly from younger citizens. In some cases, younger activists have moved from grassroots movements into formal politics.
Desire for change and innovation: Many younger leaders present themselves as reformers, offering fresh ideas and a break from the traditional political class, which is often seen as entrenched and corrupt.
Hybrid Governance Models
In several countries, the rise of militarization has not completely eroded democratic structures. Instead, what has emerged in some cases is a hybrid model of governance, where military leaders claim to restore democracy but often remain in power for extended periods. For instance:
In Mali, after the 2020 coup, Colonel Assimi Goïta initially promised elections but has maintained a strong grip on power as transitional president.
Burkina Faso and Guinea have seen similar trends, where military leaders assume transitional roles but face international pressure to return to democratic governance.
CONTRIBUTIONS OF REGIONAL ORGANIZATIONS AND BLOCS
Regional organizations and Blocs like ECOWAS and the African Union have historically played a pivotal role in supporting democratic governance and attempting to resolve political crises in West Africa. ECOWAS, in particular, has been at the forefront of efforts to mediate conflicts, impose sanctions, and restore democratic rule after coups.
ECOWAS
The Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) has played an essential role in shaping the political landscape of West Africa, contributing to the shift from older to younger leaders. ECOWAS's influence in this political transition is multi-faceted, including efforts to promote democracy, pressure on authoritarian regimes, and active responses to coups. The organization’s interventions and policies have created an environment that encourages political reform, sometimes leading to the rise of younger leaders. Here are some of ECOWAS's key contributions to this shift:
Promoting Democratic Transitions and Stability
ECOWAS has actively worked to promote democratic governance across the region. It’s Protocol on Democracy and Good Governance, adopted in 2001, emphasizes regular, free, and fair elections. This framework has encouraged member states to adopt democratic practices and allow for leadership changes, often leading to the rise of younger leaders.
Sierra Leone (2018): ECOWAS supported the democratic process that led to the election of Julius Maada Bio, who was 53 when he came to power. The organization monitored the elections and called for transparency and fairness, which helped pave the way for a peaceful transition of power to a younger generation.
Liberia (2018): ECOWAS played a crucial role in ensuring a smooth electoral process during the 2017 election that brought George Weah to power. Weah, a political outsider and former footballer, was 51 when he took office. ECOWAS’s involvement in facilitating peaceful elections created space for younger, reform-minded leaders like Weah to emerge.
Intervention in Political Crises and Coups
ECOWAS has intervened in multiple political crises and military coups in West Africa, applying sanctions and other measures to restore constitutional order. These interventions have, in some cases, led to the emergence of younger leaders, as older, entrenched leaders were ousted or forced to step down.
Mali (2020–2021): Following a military coup in 2020, ECOWAS imposed sanctions on Mali and mediated talks to ensure a return to civilian rule. Although the country went through another coup in 2021, ECOWAS’s pressure contributed to the rise of Colonel Assimi Goïta, a younger military leader in his 30s, who took charge of the transition government. While Goïta’s leadership is controversial, ECOWAS's involvement played a role in reshaping Mali’s political landscape, leading to a younger leadership group.
Burkina Faso (2022): After two military coups in 2022, ECOWAS applied sanctions and facilitated discussions between military and civilian groups. As a result, Ibrahim Traoré, a 34-year-old army captain, took over as the head of the transitional government. ECOWAS’s intervention helped stabilize the situation, allowing Traoré, the world’s youngest head of state, to lead.
Facilitating Peaceful Transitions and Power Sharing
ECOWAS has often mediated power-sharing agreements and transitional governments in post-conflict or post-coup situations, allowing younger leaders to rise to prominence. By focusing on dialogue, reconciliation, and peace processes, ECOWAS has contributed to the emergence of younger political figures.
Guinea-Bissau (2014–2020): ECOWAS has been involved in mediating the political crisis in Guinea-Bissau for years. Through its diplomatic efforts, the organization facilitated elections that brought Umaro Sissoco Embaló to power in 2020. Embaló, who was 47 at the time, represented a shift towards younger leadership in a country that had been plagued by instability and political infighting.
The Gambia (2017): ECOWAS played a pivotal role in the peaceful transfer of power from long-serving President Yahya Jammeh to Adama Barrow, a relatively young leader at the age of 51. When Jammeh refused to step down after losing the 2016 election, ECOWAS intervened militarily and diplomatically to ensure Barrow could assume office. This intervention reinforced the region’s commitment to peaceful transitions and opened the door for younger leadership.
Encouraging Constitutional Reforms and Term Limits
ECOWAS has been vocal about the need for constitutional reforms and the enforcement of term limits. By pressuring leaders to step down after their terms end, the organization has helped prevent political stagnation and created opportunities for younger leaders to rise.
Niger (2021): ECOWAS supported the peaceful transition of power in Niger, where President Mahamadou Issoufou stepped down after completing his second term, adhering to constitutional term limits. This transition led to the election of Mohamed Bazoum, who was 61 at the time, representing a shift toward a new generation of leadership. ECOWAS's insistence on respecting term limits helped Niger avoid political crisis and ensure leadership renewal.
Promoting Youth Engagement and Leadership Development
ECOWAS has increasingly focused on youth engagement in politics, encouraging young people to participate in governance. This initiative aligns with the region's demographic realities, as the majority of West Africa’s population is young. By fostering youth political participation, ECOWAS indirectly promotes the rise of younger leaders.
Youth Leadership Initiatives: Through programs like the ECOWAS Youth Council, the organization encourages young leaders to take active roles in governance. This empowerment of younger generations has helped pave the way for younger politicians to challenge the old guard and take up leadership positions.
AFRICAN UNION (AU)
The African Union has also played a role in condemning coups and supporting democratic transitions in West Africa. Like ECOWAS, the AU has suspended countries following military takeovers and called for the return to civilian rule. However, the AU faces similar challenges in enforcing its mandates, particularly when military leaders enjoy some degree of popular support or when security concerns dominate political discourse.
Public Opinion and the Military’s Appeal
The public response to military interventions in West Africa has been mixed, reflecting the complex realities faced by many citizens in the region. In some instances, military takeovers have been met with approval, especially when governments are seen as corrupt, ineffective, or authoritarian. For example, in Guinea, many citizens initially supported the military's removal of President Condé, viewing the coup as a way to address the president’s undemocratic attempts to extend his rule.
In other cases, military coups have been met with protests and opposition, particularly from civil society groups, human rights organizations, and political parties. In Mali, while some citizens initially welcomed the military’s intervention as a response to government failures, there has been growing frustration over delays in the promised return to civilian governance.
Public opinion on military rule in West Africa is often shaped by concerns about security, economic conditions, and governance.
In regions where insurgencies and violence have destabilized societies, the military is sometimes seen as a necessary force to restore order.
However, long-term military rule tends to exacerbate governance problems, as it limits political freedoms, restricts media independence, and often leads to further economic decline.
The Impact on Democracy
The resurgence of military rule in West Africa represents a serious threat to democratic consolidation in the region. Even though some military leaders claim to support democratic transitions, their extended rule undermines the legitimacy of electoral processes and weakens institutions like parliaments, courts, and civil society.
Furthermore, the frequent postponement of elections and restrictions on political activity contribute to a culture of authoritarianism that is difficult to reverse.
The weakening of democracy in West Africa also has broader implications for regional stability and international relations.
Democracies tend to foster better economic policies, human rights protections, and political stability, all of which are crucial for sustainable development. The erosion of these values under military regimes risks pushing the region into deeper political and economic crises, further complicating efforts to address issues like terrorism, poverty, and migration.
CONCLUSION
The shift toward militarization and the rise of younger leaders in West Africa reflect a combination of public disillusionment with democracy, security crises, and a desire for change. While younger leaders may represent hope for a fresh start, the increasing militarization of politics raises questions about the future of democratic governance in the region. This trend will likely continue shaping West Africa's political landscape in the near future.
Regional organizations such as ECOWAS and the African Union have taken important steps to address these challenges, but their efforts have been met with resistance and limited success. These efforts reflect ECOWAS’s broader commitment to fostering stability, democracy, and leadership change across the region.
Public opinion on military rule is divided, with some citizens supporting interventions as a means of addressing corruption and insecurity, while others oppose the undemocratic nature of military takeovers.
For democracy to thrive in West Africa, stronger international support and internal reforms are necessary to curb the influence of military regimes and foster the conditions needed for stable, democratic governance.
REFERENCE
1. Giovanni Carbone, Alessandro Pellegata · 2020 Political Leadership in Africa Leaders and Development South of the Sahara. https://www.google.co.ke/books/edition/Political_Leadership_in_Africa/RdrNDwAAQBAJ?hl=en&gbpv=0
2. Young Africa: new wave of politicians challenges old guard. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/sep/21/young-africa-new-wave-of-politicians-challenges-old-guard
3. Breaking the Mould: Senegal’s Youthful President and the Future of Leadership in Africa. https://wacsi.org/breaking-the-mould-senegals-youthful-president-and-the-future-of-leadership-in-africa/
4. Ibrahim Traore: Why Burkina Faso's leader attracts attention. https://trtafrika.com/insight/ibrahim-traore-why-burkina-fasos-leader-attracts-attention-14479334
5. West Africa’s ‘coup belt’: Did Mali’s 2020 army takeover change the region? https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/8/27/west-africas-coup-belt-did-malis-2020-army-takeover-change-the-region
6. Vamo Soko, Mohammed Sacko and Bintu Zahara Sakor. 2023 Seeking New Leadership? Military Coups in Africa and Their Implications. https://blogs.prio.org/2023/09/seeking-new-leadership-military-coups-in-africa-and-their-implications/
7. Principles or Pragmatism? How to React to West Africa’s Slew of Coups. https://gjia.georgetown.edu/2022/05/05/principles-or-pragmatism-how-to-react-to-west-africas-slew-of-coups%EF%BF%BC/
Comments